Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS64 KTSA 131721
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

 - Low chance of showers in northwest AR and far northeast OK tonight,
   otherwise dry for several days.

 - A cold front will drop temperatures back near normal mid week. Potentially
   stronger cold front this weekend or early next week.

 - Fire weather concerns will remain raised on both Wednesday and Friday
   due to gusty winds behind dry frontal passages.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Downslope component to sfc winds continues today with a sfc ridge
axis oriented along Gulf Coast into the Southern Rockies and low
to the north. Temps will climb well above normal as a result with
winds gusting around 20 mph in some locations resulting in some
limited fire spread potential this afternoon, especially west of
HIghway 75 where humidity will be lower.

By this evening a NW flow shortwave will drop south and induce a few
light rain showers from northwest AR into far northeast OK. Given
very dry low levels the overall chance of measurable remains low and
limited to just a few hundredths of an inch. This will also push a
cold front south overnight with a shift to northwest winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Cooler air will continue to surge across the region Wednesday with
gusty northwest winds 25-35 mph. While temps will be cooler and RH
is not expected to drop to critical levels, some high-res data
suggests a corridor of lower dew points Wed afternoon into parts of
eastern OK. Should this happen a zone of heightened fire weather
concerns could develop. Temperatures will be closer to normal for
highs Wed with colder lows for Wed night in the upper teens/20s.

The progressive nature of the pattern continues with the sfc high
quickly pushing south and return to south winds by Thursday. This
is expected to be followed quickly by another dry cold front on
Friday with winds again becoming rather gusty from the northwest
with fire weather concerns increasing to some degree, though not
critical.

Beyond that the forecast becomes much more uncertain in terms of
temperatures with ensembles still showing a large spread, especially
by Sunday. Pattern remains dry at least, but worth noting that there
has been at least some trend in a more amplified upper pattern next
week, which implies some potential for a more significant cold air
surge through the middle part of the country at some point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period at the E OK sites
and into tomorrow morning at the W AR sites. Potential for low
clouds remains highest after daybreak tomorrow at the far NW AR
terminals, with a lower chance at FSM. Will leave out the mention
at FSM given the increased uncertainty there, but still carrying a
lower ceiling than at the OK sites. A low chance of showers exists
mainly at the NW AR sites, but potential is too low at any one
point to mention in the terminals for now. Gusty north to
northwest winds will exist following a cold frontal passage early
tomorrow morning, with gusts from 20 to 25 kts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  43  50  24 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   69  44  53  24 /   0  10   0   0
MLC   69  44  53  24 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   66  39  49  21 /   0  10   0   0
FYV   66  39  47  19 /   0  20  10   0
BYV   65  41  46  21 /   0  40  10   0
MKO   68  44  51  23 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   63  41  46  20 /   0  30   0   0
F10   69  44  52  24 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   66  43  56  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22