Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

223
FXUS64 KTSA 281723
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory
   headlines are in effect today and Monday for portions of the
   area, and may be needed in the days following.

 - Low chances for diurnally driven storms in the terrain of SE
   OK and NW AR during the latter part of next week. Low storm
   chances over much of the area next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Dewpoints are running a few degrees lower compared to yesterday at
this time. Looking at GOES19 PWATs over the past 24 hours, the
plume of 2+" PWATs that was over us yesterday has moved clear over
toward the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic. The impact to the heat
index forecast is yet to be seen.

Another warm and breezy night is in store. The winds stayed up
even at the typical sheltered locations, and that looks largely
the case tonight. Will stay with the toasty model blend (NBM)
numbers for overnight lows.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

It is largely a temp and dewpoint forecast this coming week. Summer
has finally arrived after a long storm season. Broad ridging both
aloft and at the surface over the eastern CONUS will keep the
forecast dry through midweek. For the heat index forecast, the
plan is to lean toward the clustering of models closer to the 75th
%ile of the spread, still with the thought that dewpoints may run
a touch higher due to recent wet weather. Highs on Monday are
expected to be largely the same as today, maybe a touch higher.
The resulting heat index forecast for Monday argues for another
heat advisory for largely the same area as today. The current
forecast for Tuesday has heat indices below advisory levels most
areas, so the day to day approach to the headlines is good.

Deep layer moisture will increase from the south and east toward
the end of the week, with model data indicating some potential for
mainly afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday
and Friday. By next weekend, ensemble data suggests weaker
ridging across the southern CONUS as the H5 height center shows
hints of relocating back over the southern Rockies. The QPF fields
have a popcorn afternoon storm feel to them, areawide. The
temperature forecast has an upward slope to it during the latter
half of the week. The NBM has temps getting close to triple digits
in some spots by next Saturday. The MOS is not quite that hot yet,
so we will just have to wait and see. Nevertheless, chances for
more heat headlines are pretty good.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected into Monday, with
the exception of some of the higher terrain late tonight
and early Monday where local MVFR ceilings are possible
for several hours. Low-level wind shear is expected
across the area tonight and early Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  80  93  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   94  77  95  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  79  94  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   92  79  93  78 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   90  77  90  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   88  76  91  75 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   92  78  93  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   91  78  92  77 /   0   0   0   0
F10   93  77  93  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  77  94  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-064-066-
     067-070-074-154-176-254-272-354.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>058-
     060>062-067-070-074-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...08