Tahlequah, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

114
FXUS64 KTSA 302319
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

  - Thunderstorms with severe potential may redevelop along cold
    front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front. Most storms
    likely to move east of the forecast area by 6 PM.

  - Unsettled mid / late week with severe weather potential late
    Tuesday into Wednesday. At least limited severe potential
    continues into Thursday and Friday, mainly across SE OK and
    W-Central AR.

  - Very windy conditions forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night with
    gusts between 35 to 45 mph.

  - Rain chances continue for late week through next weekend w/
    heavy rain and flood potential, especially across SE OK and
    W-Central AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A cold front was oriented from SE OK to NW AR, helping to spawn
isolated convection as it moves southward this afternoon. Any
storms that develop along or ahead of the front will have
potential to quickly become severe, capable of all hazards,
including very large hail. The tornado threat will remain
conditional and dependent on storm motion, owing to marginal low
level directional shear across our FA. Any convection is forecast
to move east of the CWA by 5-6 PM this evening.

Following the departure of the cold front and any associated storms
this evening, quiet conditions are in store for the overnight period
as sfc high pressure expands into the region. Temperatures will be
rather cold tonight, especially for northern zones where lows in the
30s are forecast. Light northerly winds and partly-mostly cloudy
skies can be expected for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Monday will likely be the quietest day of the week weather-wise...
but it will be much cooler than recent days. High temps will top out
in the 60s for much of the area except for far N OK and NW AR where
temps may struggle to climb out of the 50s. We may see a sprinkle or
two scrape N OK counties Monday morning/ early afternoon as a subtle
mid level wave passes overhead. Otherwise, skies become mostly clear
during the afternoon hours.

By Tuesday morning, southerly flow resumes in response to
intensifying sfc low over eastern Colorado. This low tracks ENE
during the day Tuesday, dragging a dryline/ cold front into W OK
during the afternoon/ evening hours. South winds will become quite
strong ahead of the front with gusts forecast to approach or exceed
advisory criteria for much of the forecast area. Timing
discrepancies exist between models, but eventually thunderstorms
are forecast to develop along the boundary late Tuesday or
overnight into Wednesday as it moves east into our area. There
will likely be a severe threat associated with this activity late
Tuesday and on Wednesday. All severe hazards appear possible at
this time.

This front will tend to linger in the vicinity of SE OK/ W-Central
AR through Thursday and Friday, before being shunted southward next
weekend. Southwest flow aloft persists through this period with
multiple impulses interacting with the frontal boundary. As a
result, periodic thunderstorm chances (and severe potential) can
be expected through the end of the week areawide... but SE OK and
W-Central AR are currently favored to experience the highest
impacts. Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall during this time appear
probable and hydrologic concerns will likely increase by Thursday
and Friday. More specific timing and spatial details will come
into focus in the coming days.

Warmer temperatures are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday... in the
70s or lower 80s... but with increased cloud cover and rainfall,
temps will top out in the 60s or lower 70s for the remainder of the
extended period. Limited fire weather conditions may develop on
Tuesday given strong winds, but overall, fire weather concerns
should remain low over the next several days due to last night`s
rains and increasing moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Some MVFR conditions linger at the western Arkansas sites this evening.
These conditions are set to improve over the next couple of hours. However,
MVFR ceilings are possible again late tonight into Monday morning
at the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas sites with improvement
expected by Monday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  63  45  76 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   46  71  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  67  47  78 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   40  62  40  75 /   0  10   0  10
FYV   40  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   38  61  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   42  64  45  77 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   39  60  42  73 /   0  10   0  10
F10   42  64  44  77 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   48  69  49  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...10